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Automated analysis

This analysis was drafted by our research engine and has not been checked by a human editor. It may contain errors. It separates the paper’s own results from our tests, and any figures called ours come from our own backtest.

Our automated analysisOur backtest

A one-millisecond LSV calibration with twelve test surfaces

Wang and co-authors amortize the McKean-Vlasov fixed point; the evidence is synthetic and the accept gate is uncertified.

2026-09-08 · 9 min read · US listed equity and ETF options at end-of-day frequency, plus underlying US stocks/ETFs

Reviewing: Amortizing the Calibration Triple: A Projection-Consistent Neural Operator for Local-Stochastic Volatility · Xiaozhen Wang, Anaïs Després, Martin Dureau et al. · Read it on arxiv

Our backtest of this idea

Our automated quick test, not the paper's

Arbitrage-Gated IV Surface Relative Value with Delta Hedging

Backtest period 2020-01-01 to 2025-10-08 · hypothetical, net of modelled costs

Why these figures are not the paper's (3)

Run on a different market than the paper

The paper is generic and synthetic rather than tied to one exchange-traded market; a backtest would apply the same vanilla-option-surface calibration mechanism to US listed equity/ETF options. Exotic forward-start and cliquet pricing tests would not transfer because those instruments are not in the platform data.

The paper's own figures describe its universe and do not carry over to ours.

This is not a replication of the paper (4)

  • The platform has end-of-day option data only, so the backtest cannot reproduce intraday calibration latency or any intraday execution use case.
  • The available options data may not include full bid-ask quote books; the implementation would use EOD option prices/implied volatilities rather than the paper's bid-ask-weighted quote residuals.
  • The paper's empirical validation is on controlled synthetic LSV experiments and exotic forward-start/cliquet pricing errors, not on historical listed-option trading performance. A backtest would evaluate a derived vanilla-options relative-value strategy, not directly reproduce the paper's reported claims.
  • A full DeepONet/FNO amortized LSV solver would require building an offline synthetic training generator and calibration/particle-method teacher; a simpler residual-coupled IV/Dupire calibration would be a practical substitute if that machinery is not implemented.

The figures below measure what we could run, not the paper's own method, so they are not evidence for or against its claim.

Our own audit found this run does not follow the paper faithfully (17)

  • eq 10 quotient Fokker-Planck equation (invalidates: The paper's forward-witness residual and related projection-learning guarantees do not apply to this backtest implementation.)
  • eq 11 forward-backward duality (invalidates: The paper's optional dual audit and forward/backward witness loss results do not apply except where an implementation explicitly adds the audit.)
  • eq 12 Deep-Sets branch representation (invalidates: The paper's amortized-operator architecture, OOD embedding distance interpretation, and calibration-latency results do not apply directly.)
  • eq 14 forward/backward/dual witness losses (invalidates: Forward/backward/dual witness accuracy and exotic-pricing stability claims from the paper do not apply.)

13 further finding(s) are described in the note.

These are our findings about our own implementation, not criticisms of the paper. Read the figures below as a description of what we ran.

Jan 2020Total 5.6%Oct 2025
Sharpe
0.53
Total Return
5.6%
Max Drawdown
-2.0%
CAGR
1.0%
Volatility
1.8%
Trades
19,548

What the paper reports for its own strategy

  • Calibration latency 0.60 ms/surface vs 98.5 ms particle baseline (paired, same hardware, synthetic held-out states)
  • Vanilla repricing RMSE 58.2 +/- 3.3 bps on 8 held-out surfaces, 2 seeds (spread across seeds, not a confidence interval); described by authors as floor-level relative to the 59 bps particle self-repricing floor
  • IV RMSE 41.5 bps on the rough-Bergomi trusted interior (|k| <= 0.25, T >= 0.2), 12 held-out states
  • Local-volatility RMSE 0.0356 (absolute, volatility units) on the synthetic interior
  • Leverage RMSE 0.0615 / 0.0687 (two FNO seeds, 500 states) against a 24-run particle mean
  • Forward-start error 2.0% and cliquet error 0.6% versus high-fidelity LSV truth (N=60,000, 150 steps)

The reusable idea in this paper is scoring the three calibration outputs against each other instead of one at a time. At matched 1.02 ms latency, that change takes leverage RMSE from 0.127 to 0.098, the independent flux residual from 0.203 to 0.154, and repricing from 136 to 115 bps, against a leverage-only network of the same speed. No architecture story is needed to explain it. Forcing the heads to agree is worth 15 to 24% depending on which of those three errors you look at.

A note on what we could and could not do with it. The paper is generic and synthetic rather than tied to any exchange-traded market, so we took the vanilla-surface calibration idea across to US listed equity and ETF options. The forward-start and cliquet tests could not transfer, because those instruments are not in our data. Our data is end-of-day, so intraday calibration latency is untestable here. And we ran a residual-coupled IV/Dupire substitute rather than the paper's DeepONet/FNO solver. Our run is not a replication and not a test of the paper's claims.

What the operator replaces

A desk calibrating local-stochastic volatility runs three engines in sequence. Fit an arbitrage-admissible implied-volatility surface to the quote book. Differentiate it to get Dupire local variance. Then solve for the leverage function. That step is where the pain lives. Gyöngy's projection says leverage squared times the conditional moment of stochastic variance equals local variance. The conditional moment is computed under dynamics that already contain the unknown leverage, so the calibration is a fixed point in laws. Particle methods solve it with Monte Carlo and kernel error, sequentially in time, and the whole chain reruns for every surface, backbone and scenario.

Wang, Després, Dureau and Buet-Golfouse learn one conditional map from a quote book and a stochastic-volatility backbone descriptor to all four fields at once: log implied variance q = log I², Dupire local variance, the conditional moment, and leverage squared. A permutation-invariant Deep-Sets encoder reads the unordered quotes. A DeepONet branch-trunk decoder (or an FNO) writes the fields, and softplus and exponential heads keep them positive. Training minimizes a normalized residual system rather than a label loss: bid-ask distance, static-arbitrage margins, a division-free Dupire residual derived in log-implied-variance coordinates, and the projection residual. Autodiff supplies the derivatives, so the Dupire term binds between quote nodes.

Everything is synthetic. Forty-eight training and twelve held-out rough-Bergomi market states, a Heston-type application backbone, quote grids of six maturities by eleven log-moneyness nodes, with main-suite metrics restricted to |k| ≤ 0.25 and T ≥ 0.2. The authors verified the numerical plumbing before fitting anything: Black inversion error 3.5e-16, rough-Bergomi Volterra covariance error 1e-16, price-coordinate versus IV-coordinate Dupire agreement tightening from 2.02% to 0.043%, Heston Lewis-versus-Monte-Carlo agreement of 7.6 bps.

The 164x shrinks to 2.53x

Calibration latency falls from 98.5 ms per surface for the particle solve (N = 6,000, 50 steps, including its own 0.53 ms Dupire finite-difference input) to 0.60 ms for the operator, paired on the same hardware. The paper is direct about what that does and does not buy. Adding the shared 512 ms two-dimensional ADI exotic solve on a 96 x 48 x 128 grid, the complete-workflow speedup is 1.15 to 2.53x. The learned operator removes the calibration fixed point while the payoff solve stays, and the authors write it that way.

An implementer should also read the full timing tables rather than the headline. The 0.60 ms figure is a paired exotic-configuration timing. A separate 984-node checkpoint puts the operator at 2.37 ms per surface at batch 1, dropping to 0.19 at batch 16 and 0.074 at batch 64. The same checkpoint puts particle costs at 77.93, 385.43 and 783.93 ms for 2^10, 2^12 and 2^13 particles over 64 steps. The paper flags these as distinct checkpoints. Batching is where the economics sit: 0.074 ms per surface at batch 64 against 2.37 ms at batch 1, so a scenario grid is cheap and a single surface on demand is thirty times dearer per unit.

One cost is simply not on the table. The authors state that matched offline costs were not recorded, so this is an online frontier and not a total-cost claim. They give the crossing formula for when amortization pays, and it needs the offline training time, which nobody has.

How much of the gain belongs to the baseline?

The two headline field results are the ones I trust least, and the authors tell you why. On the rough-Bergomi trusted interior the IV head gives 41.5 bps RMSE versus 227.6 bps for SSVI, and local-volatility RMSE falls from 0.056 to 0.0356, a 36% reduction. But the operator is scored against the exact Dupire identity while the 0.056 comes from a noisy one-surface SSVI-Dupire estimator. Same shape on leverage: at 500 states, two FNO seeds give 0.0615 and 0.0687 against a 24-run particle mean, 7 to 16% below the 0.0735 deviation of a single particle run. The paper treats it as noise-averaging evidence only.

On prices, the honest reading is parity. Held-out vanilla repricing is 58.2 ± 3.3 bps, and that spread is two seeds rather than a confidence interval. The comparators are 60.3 for local volatility, 61.5 for Heston, and a 59 bps particle self-repricing floor. The authors say the 1.8 bps gap to the floor is not statistically meaningful. Against high-fidelity LSV truth with 60,000 particles and 150 steps, the operator's forward-start error is 2.0% versus 1.9% for the reference particle implementation, and its cliquet error 0.6% versus 0.4%. The operator is slightly worse on both, no Monte-Carlo intervals are reported, and the paper explicitly declines to call it equivalence.

The ablations are where I would spend replication effort, because they compare the method against itself. Predicting q = log I² rather than I cuts IV error from 136.4 to 102.7 bps, roughly 25%, for a coordinate change. Residual training produced zero observed calendar or butterfly violations across five seeds on the evaluated grids, versus 2.9% butterfly violations without the residual terms. Scaling from 8 to 48 training market states walks IV error 451, 186, 147, 124, 116, 103 bps and repricing 238 to 113. That curve has not flattened.

Judgment calls

The cleaning map. Theorem 1's identification runs through a fixed cleaning convention, supplied either as a cleaner input or as collocation supervision. Proposition 2 proves no exact teacher exists from finite quotes: for any interior point off the quote grid there is a smooth perturbation vanishing on every quote that moves local variance. The measured SSVI-versus-market local-volatility commutator is 10.5%. So the implementer picks what counts as truth, and that choice is not neutral.

Teacher annealing. Supervision flips sign in usefulness. With scarce labels, teachers prevent collapse and deliver local-volatility and leverage RMSE of 0.0477 and 0.1501. With full labels, teacher-heavy variants inherit about 233 bps of SSVI bias. The paper says annealing begins after validation residuals stop improving. Our end-of-day surfaces gave no clean-label target, so the teacher weight had nowhere to anneal to.

The gate thresholds. Each inference carries a seven-component diagnostic vector routing to Accept, particle Polish or Reject. The paper writes down the two quantities a deployment must report, selective risk and coverage. It then says the experiments do not estimate them, so the vector is not a calibrated confidence certificate. The 0.59 correlation between the projection residual and the particle residual in the vol-of-vol sweep is described as preliminary ranking evidence. With coverage unmeasured, the 0.60 ms figure is an upper bound on what a desk would actually realise.

The domain. Accuracy outside the trusted interior degrades to 175 bps at the boundary and short maturities against 41.5 inside, and repricing runs 107, 139 and 182 bps on interpolation, out-of-distribution and stress boxes.

On training itself, we did not find network widths, optimizer settings or a training budget in the paper's text. And the residual weights, curriculum stages, margin floors and out-of-distribution ridge parameter are chosen on validation data drawn from the same synthetic generator as the test states.

The authors do not hide any of this, and they answer it. "The present results therefore support the mechanism and measured ordering, not universal dominance," they write, and the abstract claims only that "these results support amortizing the LSV fixed point: the expensive solve moves offline." That is a fair description of what 12 test surfaces can carry. My view is that a mechanism-only claim is still worth a desk's afternoon. The mechanism is cheap to test, because residual coupling across heads costs one loss term. Either the 15 to 24% joint-versus-leverage-only gain at matched latency reproduces on your own surfaces in a week, or it does not. What it does not buy is a decision to retire a particle engine, and the unmeasured Accept coverage is exactly why.

We traded a substitute

We could not reproduce this paper. Our data is end-of-day only, so intraday calibration latency and every intraday use case are out of reach. We used end-of-day option prices and implied volatilities rather than the paper's bid-ask-weighted quote residuals. The paper's evidence is synthetic LSV field accuracy and exotic pricing error, not trading performance, and forward-start and cliquet instruments are not in our data. Building the full DeepONet/FNO stack would have required an offline synthetic generator and a particle teacher. So we ran a practical substitute. It fits the arbitrage-constrained q = log IV² surface, applies the butterfly and calendar margin gates plus a Dupire residual gate, and trades the residual.

That adaptation buys options whose market IV sits at least two MAD-scaled standard deviations below the fitted surface and sells those at least two above, preferring same-underlying, same-expiry, closest-delta pairs. Top 50 US stock underlyings, 73 to 365 days to expiry, log-moneyness within ±0.25 (the paper's trusted interior, imported), delta 0.10 to 0.90. Exit on convergence at |z| ≤ 0.5, adverse widening at |z| ≥ 3.5, or gate failure. Delta hedged in the underlying at every close. We charged 50 bps of premium slippage on option legs, 5 bps on hedges, $0.65 per contract and $0.004 per share.

Over 2020-01-01 to 2025-10-08 that book returned 5.59% in total, with a Sharpe of 0.53, a Sortino of 0.78, a Calmar of 0.48, volatility of 1.83% and a win rate of 47.53%. A 0.53 Sharpe on a 1.83% volatility book is a thin result. The paper reports no strategy, no P&L, no Sharpe and no drawdown anywhere. No like-for-like comparison exists in either direction: their metric is calibration RMSE and latency on synthetic market states, ours is a listed-option relative-value book. Read our figures as evidence about the substitute.

Two of our choices matter most for the shape of that result. Net vega is capped at 2% of initial capital and delta is flattened daily, so this is a small-exposure book by construction, and both the returns and the risk figures are scaled accordingly. And the diagnostics I most wanted to exercise, the out-of-distribution distance, the independent flux metric, the projection residual and any particle LSV check, are all disabled in our version. The accept/polish/reject routing is the part of the paper a desk would actually depend on, and it is precisely the part we did not test.

First place a desk should put this

As a warm start and a scenario engine for an existing LSV stack. In the 500-state study, two FNO seeds produced leverage RMSE 7 to 16% below the 0.0735 single-run particle deviation, measured against a 24-run mean. In the separate paired exotic-configuration timing, one operator evaluation takes 0.60 ms against 98.5 ms for the particle solve. The paper already frames the Polish mode as initializing a short particle solve from the predicted leverage. That use needs no certification: a bad warm start costs iterations, not marks. Replacing particle calibration outright needs Accept coverage and selective risk on rolling historical quote books. Rolling historical books are on the authors' own production-validation list, alongside more seeds and states, exotic confidence intervals, hardware latency percentiles and targeted high-vol-of-vol failures. Selective risk and coverage they write down in equation (25) and do not estimate.

What would move me: a run on real quote books where the residual gate's 0.59 correlation with particle difficulty turns into a measured coverage number, and the boundary error stops being four times the interior error.

How our backtest worked

The steps the code we ran actually executed, from its strategy card. Ours, not the paper's — it is one automated implementation of the idea, not the authors' own.

For each trading date at the close:
  Select top-50 US stock underlyings by annual capitalization, excluding ADRs.
  For each underlying:
    Load listed vanilla option EOD closes, greeks, IVs, expiries, and underlying price.
    Filter contracts:
      73 &lt;= DTE &lt;= 365
      -0.25 &lt;= log-moneyness &lt;= 0.25
      0.10 &lt;= |delta| &lt;= 0.90
      close &gt;= 0.05 and vega &gt;= 0.02
      liquidity filters when bid/ask, volume, and open interest exist
    Require enough active contracts per expiry and enough trusted expiries.
    Fit a smooth arbitrage-constrained q(T,k)=log(IV^2) surface.
    Reject chain/regions if butterfly margin Gq &lt; 0.001, calendar margin 1+Tq_T &lt; 0.001, or Dupire residual gate fails.
    Compute residual = market IV - fitted IV.
    Standardize z by underlying using MAD with 0.01 vol-point floor and pooled fallback when sample count &lt; 30.

  Entry:
    Buy cheap options with z &lt;= -2.0.
    Sell rich options with z &gt;= 2.0.
    Prefer pairs from same underlying, same expiry, closest absolute-delta bucket.
    Limit to 2 pairs per underlying per day, 8 open option legs per underlying, 200 total open option legs.
    Size by vega and liquidity caps; round to integer contracts.

  Risk and hedging:
    Enforce short-contract, gross short-notional, premium/margin proxy, leverage, and net-vega caps.
    Recompute option delta exposure using EOD greeks.
    Trade underlying shares at the close to keep net delta near zero when threshold is exceeded.

  Exit:
    Close option legs when |z| &lt;= 0.5, |z| &gt;= 3.5 adverse widening, expiry/liquidity constraints fail, or active diagnostic gates reject the chain.